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Sunday, January 29, 2023

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SNG Bubble Indobet88 Play

Scurvy’s post made me look at my numbers again, something I’ve been lazy about since cashing out the majority of bankroll and backing off my play during the summer.

In his post, he talks about finishing 4th most often, probably due to aggressive bubble play, and wonders if correct SNG play naturally leads to more 4th place finishes.

I’m aggressive on the bubble, but selectively so. When I’m a shortstack or a big stack, I exploit medium stacks that are trying to limp ITM. When I’m a medium stack, I’m cautious about when I play, but I’m always willing to risk my stack when I’m first in to send a message to the other players that I won’t let myself be blinded out, and they’re going to get hurt if they play with speculative cards. They all assume I have a very strong if I’m willing to go bust when I could just limp to the money, so they narrow their calling range (assuming rational opponents, a BIG assumption, I know).

Statistically, my results are interesting:

The majority of these are turbos on Stars (9-seats), so my 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishes are statistically average. But, I win more often than anything else. I’d like to see my ITM north of 40%, but it’s at 38.8% right now, probably from my own non-optimal play since I started back at the lower levels.

I really don’t see how I can back off and limp to the money more often due to my early-level play. I’m very tight, play solid ABC poker, nothing too fancy. There’s always some idiot willing to call 3x pre-flop raises in the early rounds with 3-7off because, hey, it’s less than 10% of his stack! So, no point in early fancy play.

I’ve always had a problem right around 6th place. Usually blinds are getting significant at this point, and I might try a steal play and get caught. This leaves me short-stacked with 6th left, and easy call for anyone when I have to push.

I’m also noticing that the proportion of people playing similarly is going up. The idiots are busting and going away. 8 months ago, it was not unusual to sit at a 55, 109, or 215 turbo SNG with 3 certified fish. I’m talking about people that have thousands of dollars in documented losses over at Sharkscope. I play much lower these days (um… 6 through 25 turbo SNGs) since cashing out, but I see alot more breakeven players. Not many sharks, but everyone is on the same level, trading money and making ‘Stars rich through rake. There’s still one or two idiots, but not as many as a year ago.

My sense is, with the changing playing environment, I need to be more willing to play post-flop in levels 3 and 4, and level 5 if I have the stack for it. In turbos, after level 5, nearly every hand is played pre-flop and I’m very comfortable with that part of the game. But, I need to do a better job of accumulating meaningful chips in those middle rounds if I’m going to drag that ITM back over 40%.

Toes, meet water…

So, dipped my toes back in the Indobet88 pool this past weekend after a few weeks break. After working 14 straight days, 10 hrs per day, on my feet the entire time, I wasn’t up for anything except sweet blissful sleep.

This working for a living is getting in the way of my vices.

So, with a little break and some found money over at Party, I enjoyed a pleasant reunion with the poker gods. 5 of 7 in the SNGs with 2 wins. I’ll take it.

Didn’t see many great starting hands, but I did catch lucky in two SNGs when I put my money in way behind. Again, I’ll take it.

I wasn’t thrilled with the pilot, but I’m really liking tonight’s episode. Alec Baldwin is outstanding and entirely believable as the amoral, narcissistic network exec, and he steals the show tonight in a scene about a poker game. Hope NBC makes that one it’s 2-minute recap, because it was off-the-charts funny.

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